NFL DFS Week 7 optimal lineup

Last week’s lineup included three of the nine players who ended up in the Milly Maker-winning lineup, but it was ultimately undone by injuries.

Drake Maye (27.24 DraftKings points) continued his ascension toward the top-five quarterback discussion against the Saints, with Josh Jacobs (32 DK points) and Kyren Williams (16.7 DK points) each doing their part. That’s 75.94 points on a combined salary of $19,500, earning an almost 4x return on investment.

That’s what you need to take down tournaments like these, but losing two wide receivers to an injury early in games where they had premium matchups is hard to overcome. Especially when they have the ceilings of Puka Nacua (ankle) and Calvin Ridley (hamstring).

Still, a .333 batting average would fast-track me to Cooperstown.

Last week, much of the field built lineups around the Cowboys-Panthers, the highest game total on the slate, while I focused on what could possibly go wrong. Both George Pickens (34.8 DK points) and Rico Dowdle (36.9 DK points) ended up in the winning lineup, but you didn’t need Dak Prescott or Bryce Young, although both were fine.

This week, the Cowboys are back with an even bigger game total (54 1/2) against the Commanders, and you’d think I would’ve learned my lesson. I have, just not the one you’re probably thinking.

There will almost certainly be players in this game who are usable, but building your lineup around it carries more risk than most realize, especially considering it’s a divisional matchup. Throw out the rules when two rivals face off.

Jayden Daniels, CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams and Zach Ertz will all be serious chalk this week.

If you do build around the matchup, I’d onslaught it — four or five players from this game in your lineup — because you believe the game will meet or exceed expectations. I’d also build around Prescott, who is drawing significantly less attention than Daniels.

Otherwise, pick a piece or two, and search for other building blocks. I have a few in mind, including one particular player from the Commanders-Cowboys.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.75 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The optimal lineup has netted $80 this season, so I’m in the red $25 with an average score of 137.37 points through six weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

Week 1: 95.52

Week 2: 124.90

Week 3: 181.44

Week 4: 142.88

Week 5: 162.24

Week 6: 117.24

Week 7 lineup

— QB: Bo Nix, Broncos ($5,800)

Nix and Denver’s passing game are in a solid bounce-back spot against the Giants. The G-Men have surrendered the seventh-most passing yards to opposing QBs this season. This is also a bet on Sean Payton as a play-caller against an aggressive pass rush.

— RB: Saquon Barkley, Eagles ($7,700)

The last three running backs to get at least 20 touches against the Vikings were Quinshon Judkins (24 for 128 total yards), Kenneth Gainwell (25 for 134 and two touchdowns) and Bijan Robinson (25 for 168). In each of Philadelphia’s four wins, Barkley has had at least 22 touches, and he’s had 23 touches combined in the Eagles two losses. Also, Pro Bowl guard Landon Dickerson could return this week after missing the Giants game on a short week.

— RB: Quinshon Judkins, Browns ($6,000)

The Dolphins’ defense has been destroyed by Rico Dowdle and Kimani Vidal the last two weeks and are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. According to FantasyLabs, Judkins has handled 80% of Cleveland’s rushing attempts since Week 3. Rainy plus windy conditions should equal another heavy workload against a Miami team ready to implode.

— WR: Justin Jefferson, Vikings ($7,600)

You’d be hard-pressed to find a skinny stack with a higher ceiling than Barkley and Jefferson. Quinyon Mitchell has been dealing with a hamstring injury all week, but will play. Still, wouldn’t want to be less than 100% going against Jefferson. Also, the return of All-Pro defensive tackle Jalen Carter could force Minnesota to throw the ball more.

— WR: Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($5,900)

Recency bias should keep the field off of Sutton, after he had only one reception for 17 yards against Sauce Gardner in London last week. The Giants don’t have a shutdown corner and are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Also, I’m thinking Sutton has a big day in honor of Demaryius Thomas with Denver inducting the late great receiver into its Ring of Fame. Sutton is one of two Broncos left who played with Thomas. Earlier this week, he said Thomas “means the world to me.”

— WR: Jalen Coker, Panthers ($4,000)

As mentioned above, you don’t utilize WR1s against the Jets, but ancillary WRs work perfectly fine. Coker will make his season debut after averaging 11.4 PPR points per game with three top-36 weekly fantasy finishes in his rookie season. According to FantasyPros, the Jets’ secondary has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers.

— TE: Mason Taylor, Jets ($3,400)

Who else is Justin Fields going to throw to with Garrett Wilson out with a knee injury? Coming into the week, the Panthers were allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, including the most receiving yards this season. They’re now third after the Steelers and Bengals allowed every tight end in uniform to score at least one TD on Thursday night.

— FLEX: Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders ($6,100)

“Bill” is a leverage play against all that Jayden Daniels chalk that’ll be in play on Sunday. The talented rookie ranks third in explosive run rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt, according to FantasyPros. The Cowboys’ run defense has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game and the fifth-highest explosive run rate.

— DST: Denver Broncos ($3,500)

Jaxson Dart has been impressive, but he’s not a better athlete or runner than Justin Fields, and the Broncos just sacked Fields nine times. I’m sensing the Giants, reinvigorated by Dart and Cam Skattebo, get humbled at Denver. It’s one of the toughest places to play even when the Broncos are bad, and they certainly aren’t bad now.