Greg Cote's Week 7 NFL picks

Had a decent 10-5 straight-up last week and salvaged 7-8 vs. the betting line, but, oh what might have been had we not been upended by those two big upsets Monday night — including the Bears’ miracle late rally at Washington robbing us. Scored a pair of dogs-with-points on covers by the Dolphins (vs. Chargers) and Bengals (at Packers). And liked our Seattle-win-at-Jax pick. For the season we’re still barely below the Mendoza line overall and need some heavy lifting to get up over even vs. the spread. Still way too soon to panic, though. Our confidence intact, now let’s [bleep]in’ go! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Steelers (4-1, -5 1/2) over @Bengals (2-4), 27-16.]

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— Week 6: 10-5, .667 overall; 7-8, .467 against the spread.

— Season: 55-37, .598 overall; 42-50, .457 against the spread.

— Final 2024: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 against the spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 7 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

BUCCANEERS (5-1) at LIONS (4-2)

Line: DET by 5 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DET, 31-24.

TV: 7 p.m. Monday, ABC/ESPN.

Shootout? There’ll be two touchdowns scored before the national anthem ends. (Can prove that; just a hunch.) Such fireworks on Monday night’s early-game stage make for our Game of the Week. So do Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield leading two offenses averaging a combined 59.3 points per game. Detroit was humbled last week, spanked at K.C. on Sunday night, and I see Lions parlaying that to a big bounce-back effort at home. Tampa Bay hopes to have back WR Mike Evans for Monday, but could be missing spark plug rookie WR Emeka Egbuka as well as WR Chris Godwin and RB Bucky Irving again. Can Miracle Mayfield conjure another fantastic finish? Not this time. Lions have dipped slightly below Green Bay as betting pick to rep the NFC in Super Bowl, but will ride the home dome to regaining that spot.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

FALCONS (3-2) at 49ERS (4-2)

Line: SF by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: ATL, 24-20.

TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.

“AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Atlantaawwk!” NFC duel of playoff hopefuls on the Sunday night stage. Atlanta’s two straight wins have been over quality foes: Buffalo last Monday, Washington the game before. San Fran could have QB Brock Purdy and TE George Kittle both back from injury here, but Falcons present — surprise! — the stingiest pass defense in league. Niners missing star LB Fred Warner for rest of season is a huge loss, especially when facing a RB such as Bijan Robinson, who has averaged 6.5 yards per carry since Week 2. (Good luck to Miami’s run defense next week as well.) Frans are an injury-wracked team holding on; Birds are an unheralded squad on the rise. “My brethren on the rise,” affirms U-Bird. “Bijan Robinsaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 7:

Thursday night pick was Steelers (4-1, -5 1/2) over @Bengals (2-4), 27-16.

Rams (4-2, -2 1/2) over Jaguars (4-2) in London, 23-20: After subjecting Londoners to the winless Jets last week, NFL atones by gifting a strong matchup to Wembley Stadium for the 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff. It’s a sneaky-good GOTW contender — but a pick made harder because Rams seemed likely to be missing top target Puka Nacua to an ankle injury. Still trust Matthew Stafford more than I do Trevor Lawrence.

@Bears (3-2, -4 1/2) over Saints (1-5), 27-17: Chicago is coming off an exhilarating Monday night upset at Washington and should handle a much worse Saints defense. Caleb Williams is on an 0-4 skid playing on short rest but has his offense averaging 27 points in its three-game win streak. And N’Awlins’ Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave both are limited by injuries and iffy.

Patriots (4-2, -6 1/2) over @Titans (1-5), 30-10: Pats coach Mike Vrabel will be amped to face his former team while disheveled Titans just panic-fired their coach Brian Callahan too soon. Vrabel will dial up a defensive plan that backs Cam Ward into blunders. And oh, by the way: Drake Maye is really good.

@Chiefs (3-3, -12 1/2) over Raiders (2-4), 28-20: Decisive win against Detroit last Sunday night declared that Kansas City’s Super Bowl mojo is back, jack. Now Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes get WR Rashee Rice back from a six-game suspension. But these rivals’ last three meetings have been one-score games. This is a crazy-big betting line for a division game, so it’s Vegas to cover.

Dolphins (1-5, +2 1/2) over @Browns (1-5), 20-17: Misery loves company, and has plenty in the NFL in 2025. These are two of five teams with only one victory, along with the winless Jets, of course. But it seems the Dolphins lead the league in embarrassment and emit the most stink of any team in that six-pack of sad sacks. Beyond just the 1-5 mark, Miami has Mike McDaniel and Chris Grier fighting to not be fired in-season, and QB Tua Tagovailoa publicly apologizing for recent post-loss comments perceived as throwing some teammates under the bus. (Maybe some teammates deserved to be tossed under there, but I digress.) So Sunday’s game in Cleveland won’t prove whether the Fins are better than the Browns as it much as it will show whether Miami has any fight left or is ready to cave completely. Dolphins are the better team here and will show it in what ostensibly is an upset but doesn’t feel like one. Three Miami losses have been by a single score and four have come despite fourth quarter leads. Tagovailoa’s long scoring drive gave Miami a lead against the Chargers with 46 seconds left last week before Miami’s special teams and defense turned into a dumpster fire. The defense has been horrible all years but now here comes the antidote: Cleveland, lowest-scoring team in the league. Browns have a rookie QB in Dillon Gabriel behind a really bad offensive line, not a winning combo. Kid took six sacks last week. Expect an afternoon of some redemption for Tagovailoa, the Fins defense and a ridiculed team that’s been a national pinata. Upset! (Well, technically.)

Eagles (4-2, -1 1/2) over @Vikings (3-2), 23-21: GOTW committee gave this one a sniff, and settling on this result was for me the toughest call of the week. Vikes coming off a bye and J.J. McCarthy looks close, but see Carson Wentz taking snaps again. Philly got embarrassed in loss at Giants last Thursday and use that as springboard here. Eagles offense has struggled, but Saquon Barkley should finally get out of the mud vs. a run-D that is Minny’s weakness.

Panthers (3-3, -1 1/2) over @Jets (0-6), 19-16: I was leaning Jets outright (the Upset Bird wanted it, too), but logic got in the way. Carolina is aiming for its first winning record through seven games since 2019, but can’t afford overconfidence, with winless NYJ a desperate, tempting home ‘dog. That logic, though? Cats’ ground game — a way-hot Rico Dowdle and now with Chuba Hubbard back — vs. Planes. subpar run-stopping. And Carolina stops the run well, which is about all NYJ can do.

@Broncos (4-2, -7 1/2) over Giants (2-4), 23-17: Fans of the G-Men are swooning over dynamic rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo after last week’s Thursday upset of Philly. And NYG’s rest edge is magnified because Broncos played in London last week. But that won’t be enough. Jaxson and Cam get introduced here to the best defense in the NFL, one that leads the league in sacks by a mile and a half. Lean Biggies with points though in what figures as a low-scoring affair.

Colts (5-1, +1 1/2) over @Chargers (4-2), 31-23: Upset! It’s our GOTW first runner-up as two second-tier AFC powers go at it. Chargers had lost in Miami last week until Fins’ special teams and defense egregiously gave it away in the final minute. LAC’s offense just has not been the same since RB Omarion Hampton went out injured. Think I’m done doubting Indy, Daniel Jones and the highest-scoring offense in King Sport.

Commanders (3-3, -1 1/2) over @Cowboys (2-3-1), 34-27: NFC East rivals both coming off bad losses — Washington’s Monday blown-lead home dud vs. Chicago, and Dallas’ embarrassment at Carolina. Cowboys a tempting home dog in what should be a shootout, but Jayden Daniels expects to have Terry McLaurin back healthy vs. a Dallas pass-D ranked dead last in NFL and already torched for 15 TD passes.

Packers (3-1-1, -6 1/2) over @Cardinals (2-4), 24-21: Kyler Murray’s foot injury has him iffy again, with journeyman Jacoby Brissett on call. Either way, I hunch like Cardbirds at home to cover getting this many points. Arizona competes hard. Its four straight losses have been by 1, 3, 1 and 4 points, and Zona gave Colts a big test last week in Indy.

@Seahawks (4-2, -3 1/2) over Texans (2-3), 20-13: Houston is coming off a bye heading northwest for Monday night’s late game, while Seattle is off a big win in Jax. Give Texans a shot because CB Derek Stingley Jr. may be up to the challenge Jaxon Smith-Njigba presents. But result will swing primarily on Seattle defense’s major edge over Houston’s weak offensive line.

(Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.)

OFF THIS WEEK

— Bills (4-2, next @Panthers): This is a bit crazy. The current Super Bowl betting co-favorites at +650 (per DraftKings) are a Bills team with two straight losses and a Chiefs team that’s 3-3. Says there’s no super power right now. Buffs got run over by Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson last Monday; can they even count on a W in Charlotte?

— Ravens (1-5, next vs. Bears): Baltimore is NFL’s biggest disappointment right now, with four straight losses finding even respected John Harbaugh turning up on next-coach-fired lists. But — with Bears and Dolphins up next and Lamar Jackson due back in Week 8 — don’t discount a miracle run to playoffs as still possible.