Sam Farmer's Week 7 NFL picks

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times on Oct 16, 2025

Published in Football

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Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups and makes his predictions for Week 7 of the NFL season.

All lines and over/under numbers are according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Last week, Farmer posted a 10-5 (.667) record. Through the first six weeks of the season, he is 61-32 (.656).

Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, his record against the spread in Week 6 would have been 7-8 (.467). For the season, his record against the spread is 47-46 (.505).

All times are Pacific. The Bills and Ravens are off this week.

Steelers (4-1) at Bengals (2-4)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Steelers by 5 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Steelers, feasting on turnovers lately, are facing another shaky team. The Bengals' offense looks better with Joe Flacco, but the defense is terrible.

Pick: Steelers 21, Bengals 17

Rams (4-2) vs. Jaguars (4-2)

Sunday, 6:30 a.m.

Line: Rams by 3. O/U: 44 1/2.

Matthew Stafford's offense has been humming, and though potentially losing Puka Nacua hurts, the Rams can still run and stay balanced. Jacksonville has put together some big wins so this will be back and forth.

Pick: Rams 27, Jaguars 23

Raiders (2-4) at Chiefs (3-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 11 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

Chiefs are getting Rashee Rice back and are riding momentum. Raiders aren't on their level despite a decent win last week. Kansas City looks primed for a statement game.

Pick: Chiefs 30, Raiders 20

Eagles (4-2) at Vikings (3-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 1 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Vikings blitz a lot, and Philly is struggling with blitz pickup the way it did two years ago. That makes it a tight matchup, but the Eagles have more answers late.

Pick: Eagles 23, Vikings 20

Saints (1-5) at Bears (3-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bears by 5 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

These teams are fairly evenly matched, but home field gives the Bears the edge. Saints keep losing tight games. Bears find a way in familiar surroundings.

Pick: Bears 27, Saints 17

Dolphins (1-5) at Browns (1-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Browns by 3. O/U: 39 1/2.

The Browns' offense looks ho-hum and inconsistent. The Dolphins can score, and that's the difference. Browns might keep it close on the ground, but Miami pulls away late.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Browns 17

Patriots (4-2) at Titans (1-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Patriots by 7. O/U: 41 1/2.

Drake Maye has a big arm and leadership that makes him dangerous. New England's defense is versatile and well-coached. Titans are in a strange post-firing limbo and can't keep up.

Pick: Patriots 28, Titans 17

Panthers (3-3) at Jets (0-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Panthers by 1 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Carolina is 3-0 at home and playing better ball. The Jets offense is sputtering badly. Panthers ride their momentum and another strong Bryce Young performance.

Pick: Panthers 24, Jets 13

Colts (5-1) at Chargers (4-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 1 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Chargers are too banged up, despite their win at Miami. Colts keep rolling offensively, even if last week was tighter than expected. Health is the difference here.

Pick: Colts 31, Chargers 24

Giants (2-4) at Broncos (4-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 7. O/U: 40 1/2.

Giants could easily be better if not for turnovers, but Denver's defense is legit and should make life tough for Jaxson Dart. The Broncos protect home field in a lower-scoring game.

Pick: Broncos 24, Giants 20

Commanders (3-3) at Cowboys (2-3-1)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Commanders by 1 1/2. O/U: 54 1/2.

Jayden Daniels is the best player on the field right now. Dallas' defense just lost to Carolina, making it hard to trust. Expect a high-scoring game that goes Washington's way.

Pick: Commanders 31, Cowboys 27

Packers (3-1-1) at Cardinals (2-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Packers by 6 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

This will feel like a Packers home game in the desert. Whether it's Jacoby Brissett or Kyler Murray, Green Bay has the offensive firepower to win — although the Cardinals defense is no pushover.

Pick: Packers 24, Cardinals 18

Falcons (3-2) at 49ers (4-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

San Francisco is banged up and just lost Fred Warner. Atlanta's healthier since coming off a Week 5 bye. The 49ers are still dangerous, but the attrition catches up here.

Pick: Falcons 23, 49ers 18

Buccaneers (5-1) at Lions (4-2)

Monday, 4 p.m.

Line: Lions by 5 1/2. O/U: 52 1/2.

The Buccaneers catch Detroit at a good time with key injuries. Baker Mayfield keeps the Bucs in games, and their defense, while inconsistent, can be opportunistic. Tampa Bay steals it late.

Pick: Buccaneers 28, Lions 24

Texans (2-3) at Seahawks (4-2)

Monday, 7 p.m.

Line: Seahawks 3 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Seattle's offense is rounding into form, and the defense is playing with confidence. A good front four can expose that Texans offensive line. Seahawks control this one at home.

Pick: Seahawks 31, Texans 21