FENTON, Missouri — Growing up, Julia Johns would regularly go with her mom to St. Louis Bread Co. They’d each order a “You Pick Two” meal — two half-size entrees of the diner's choice.

She loved the seasonal sugar cookies.

“It was just this cute little thing we would do,” Johns said.

Today, Johns doesn't visit much. Prices are too high for the value — she doesn't buy the cookies anymore — and the rewards program isn't what it used to be, she said.

“They're like, ‘Oh, why don't you add on a teeny tiny cup of soup for $8 or buy another cookie for $4.50?’ ” she said. “And I'm like, ‘You're out of your mind.’ ”

It's been a tough few years for Fenton-based Panera and its restaurants, often still branded locally as St. Louis Bread Co. Corporate decisions to shrink portions, change ingredients and raise prices turned off customers. Last fall, CEO Paul Carbone promised a makeover.

Now, the company is mounting its “RISE” campaign to win back fans, with new food, new drinks and a plan for “reinvigorating the bakery-cafe as an ‘everyday oasis.’”

Last month, Panera announced a new value menu, with 10 half-portions of sandwiches, salads and soups priced at $4.99.

The goal? Reach $7 billion in sales by 2028.

It won't be easy, experts say. Traffic is generally down at fast-food restaurants and prices are soaring, frustrating consumers and weighing down sales. A handful of chains are closing stores and trying to reinvigorate profits, including Wendy's, Red Robin, Burger King and Pizza Hut.

It may take more than a new menu to turn things around for Panera, said consumer behavior expert Kieva Hranchuk.

“They're not fighting a sandwich problem,” Hranchuk said. “They're fighting a confidence problem.”

Panera did not make a company executive available for an interview.

Shrinking portions, rising prices

Kenneth and Linda Rosenthal opened the first St. Louis Bread Co. store in Kirkwood, Missouri, in 1987, after Kenneth was inspired by the sourdough scene he saw during a trip to San Francisco.

Eventually, St. Louis Bread Co. grew to about 20 locations in the St. Louis area. In 1993, Au Bon Pain Co., a publicly traded cafe chain, acquired the company for $23 million, later rebranding it Panera.

In 2017, JAB Holdings, a Luxembourg-based private equity group, bought Panera for $7.5 billion and made it a privately held company again.

Today, there are 2,239 company and franchise-operated Panera and St. Louis Bread Co. locations across the country and in Ontario, Canada, according to the company website.

The new owners made several money-saving changes. Restaurants discontinued some menu items and cut jobs. And instead of deliveries of fresh-made bread, bagels and pastries every day, cafe locations started receiving frozen, par-baked dough to finish baking in-store.

“In some instances, we shrunk portions,” Carbone, who was named Panera’s chief executive a year ago, said on CNBC in November. “So guests would walk into our cafe to buy a sandwich that has gone up significantly in price, with lower-quality ingredients, in a smaller size.”

Panera is privately held, so revenue figures are not publicly reported. But Technomic, a Chicago-based research firm, estimates Panera’s sales fell 5% in 2024 to $6.1 billion from $6.4 billion the year before.

Carbone called it “death by a thousand paper cuts.”

Former Panera employee Arya Kindle said she witnessed the shift in focus from food quality to cost-cutting.

“It’s like they’re trying to find the threshold for how low their overall quality can go before people start truly complaining,” she said.

It's been discouraging to watch, said Doron Berger, an early business partner and investor in the company.

Berger said he still eats at Panera sometimes, usually ordering a salad.

“Here's a company that people would have had difficulty to compete with because the execution, the quality was extremely favorable and good,” Berger said. “Suddenly, you hear about things, whether it's portion control, whether it's quality, whether it's fresh or frozen. All this stuff is disappointing."

Trying to turn around

Panera's “RISE” strategy, announced in November, is based on “refreshing the menu, igniting value, serving guests with excellence and expanding our network,” the company says on its website.

The plan promises high-quality ingredients, baked goods and beverages across various price points, plus “investing in front-of-house labor” and improving locations.

“I’m incredibly confident that Panera RISE is the roadmap that will drive our long-term growth and value creation, and that together with our team members and our franchisees, we will reclaim our position as the industry leader in fast casual,” Carbone, the CEO, said in a statement.

Hranchuk, the consumer behavior expert and a professor at Brock University in Ontario, said the menu refresh can work if Panera simplifies its ordering process, delivers quality food and creates a consistent experience.

But turnarounds can be hard.

Consumers have a plethora of options, and few fast food brands have seen long-term success again after losing customers’ trust, she said.

“When you're in a saturated market, if you lose trust, you're done,” Hranchuk said. “A comeback is possible, but it will be a lot of hard work. It's not a simple fix.”

Rick Camac, executive director of industry relations at the Institute of Culinary Education, thinks Panera has a shot.

Chipotle was able to come back after a salmonella outbreak by tightening its menu, he said, and bakery restaurant chain Le Pain Quotidien was able to turn its business around by closing a number of low-performing locations.

"They need to go back to what made them popular in the first place and stay small and lean," he said.

And with consumers more mindful of their budgets, Panera may nab customers who used to dine at sit-down restaurants.

"This segment can grow if they can make the moves," he said.

On a recent day in Kirkwood, Hudsen Backsmeyer sat in a green Panera booth studying for school. She and her friends like to gather at the chain to do homework together.

Backsmeyer said she likes Panera’s array of breakfast food, lunch items, pastries and drinks. She hasn’t noticed a change in the quality of the food over the past few years.

“If I want to eat healthy, I'll come here,” Backsmeyer said. “Prices have gone up. Portion sizes can be small.

“But the same is happening everywhere else.”

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