National Hurricane Center begins regular tropical outlook forecasts ahead of season's start

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on May 15, 2026

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ORLANDO, Fla. — Hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1, but the National Hurricane Center kicked off Friday its regular issuance of tropical outlooks for the Atlantic basin.

The routine reports describe significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential to form into a tropical system over the next seven days. The reports are updated four times a day on the NHC website through the end of hurricane season on Nov. 30.

The initial Friday report shows no activity in the Atlantic, nor in the western Pacific or central Pacific basins, for which the tropical outlooks have also begun. When a system does have the potential to develop, the NHC will updated its maps to show the percentage for development over the next two days and next seven days.

The updates will come at 2 a.m., 8 a.m., 2 p.m. and 8 p.m. until daylight saving time ends Nov. 1, when they will shift to 1 a.m., 7 a.m., 1 p.m. and 7 p.m.

This is separate from the update times for when a system develops into a named storm with projected paths. Those updates come with primary times of 5 a.m., 11 a.m., 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. until daylight saving time ends, although if close enough to land, the NHC will give intermediate updates the same time as the tropical outlook update times.

A daily tropical weather discussion is also available on the NHC website for each basin, with the Atlantic basin discussion Friday covering the Gulf, Caribbean, northern sections of South American and the Atlantic Ocean to the west African coast for systems above the equator north to 31 degrees latitude.

The National Oceania and Atmospheric Administration is expected to post its official tropical forecast next week, but already other institutions such as Colorado State University and AccuWeather forecast it to be slightly below normal.

CSU researchers expect 13 named storms, of which six will become hurricanes, with two of those being major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

Accuweather’s forecast calls for 11 to 16 named storms. Of those, 4 to 7 would become hurricanes with 2 to 4 growing to major hurricanes.

An average hurricane season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

A big driver for the diminished forecast activity is the presence of the El Niño climate pattern. That’s when ocean surface temperatures are warmer in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which in turn increase high altitude wind shear over the Atlantic in the summer and fall. That shear tends to rip apart hurricane development.

The potential for what is known as a Super El Niño, with temperatures rising 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, could mean an even quieter back end of the six-month hurricane season. The normal busy season runs from mid-August to October with the climatological peak on Sept.10.

Despite those conditions, Accuweather’s forecast states 3 to 5 of the systems could have a direct impact on the U.S. Last year ended up leaving the U.S. mostly untouched, with no landfalls from the 13 named storms and five hurricanes, though some of those moved just offshore.

The lull of 2025 followed a 2024 season that slammed Florida with hurricanes Debbie, Helene and Milton all hitting the Gulf Coast, while two others hit elsewhere on the U.S. They were among an above-average 18 named storms that year, which followed a busy 21 systems in 2023.

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